John Fountain's WebSite
Glorious Morning in the Bay

Weeks

1 2 3 4
5 6 7 8
9 10 11 12

Econ 223: week 5 2012

Lecture 13: Offically scheduled day and time not yet known (at Jan 2012) Combining Sequential & Simultaneous Games: The problem of deterrence - resolve and restraint in military responses (3 of 3)

  • Topic and reading :Myerson on Deterrence (paper for the US army on deterring aggression using resolve and restraint;
  • handout | video on UC server | strategic econ videos on uctv

Lecture 14 : Offically scheduled day and time not yet known (at Jan 2012) Risk, Uncertainty and Information in strategic Games. ( 1 of 6)

  • Topic: Introducing uncertainty through contingent actions, events, and payoffs in a simple sequential card game; the idea of an uncertain but expected payoff using subjective probabilities like TAB sports betting odds
  • handout | video on UC server | strategic econ videos on uctv
  • read: ch 7: 186-194 (omit last para p 191);omit minimax on pages 194-198 unless you're keen; read section 3 198-199; skip sections 4 and 5; 212-217; omit exercises : [but if you're keen try 7.6 and 7.7]; read appendix 221-231 but only for the concepts...this is not a course in probability theory - and Gigerenzer, above, is better for ubderstanding of concepts related to beliefs, uncertainties, probabilities ...;you might also like to read a short article I've written on the sports betting bookies at the TAB which "explains" this idea of probabilities as prices;
  • view :Short video clip (made in 2004 but relevant in 2009 too) about measuring probabilities as prices ...

Lecture 15 : Offically scheduled day and time not yet known (at Jan 2012) Risk, Uncertainty and Information in strategic Games. ( 2 of 6)

  • Topic: Using imperfect diagnostic information strategically to learn and to coherently change your beliefs: inverse probability reasoning and "learning" in game trees; natural frequency reasoning
  • handout | video on UC server | strategic econ videos on uctv
  • read: ; Gigerenzer pp26-51 [all of gigierenzer is worthwhile- you'll enjoy the first chapter, but the key ideas we need for game theory are on pp26-51 -we'll work thru the example in chapter 4 in class); Dixit and Skeath Appendix to CH 7 (skip math details - if you understand and can work with material in class on probability you'll be fine)
  • Download, view play : click here for a webcast tutorial explaing some ideas about how to obtain and use the M.I.T (Mathematica Inference Tool) software program to explore what inference to make from tests of different sensitivity , specificty and base rates (all this will be clear!)

some past Past Midterms:

 

News

  • midterm test week 6; in class
  • final test week 12 ; in class
  • want to earn $$$ participating in Experiments? click here
  • john
GameTheory | HealthEcon | Contact JF