John Fountain's WebSite
Econ 223: week 6 2012
In process of being updated for 2012: we will have a two hour in class test this week.
Lecture 16 : Offically scheduled day and time not yet known (at Jan 2012) Risk, Uncertainty and Information in strategic Games. (3 of 6)
- Topic: Continuation of previous lecture Risk, uncertainty and information: using imperfect diagnostic information strategically to learn and to coherently change your beliefs: inverse probability reasoning in game trees
- handout | video on UC server | strategic econ videos on uctv
- read: ; Gigerenzer pp26-51 [all of gigierenzer is worthwhile- you'll enjoy the first chapter, but the key ideas we need for game theory are on pp26-51 -we'll work thru the example in chapter 4 in class); Dixit and Skeath Appendix to CH 7 (skip math details - if you understand and can work with material in class on probability you'll be fine)
- Download, view play : click here for a webcast tutorial explaing some ideas about how to obtain and use the M.I.T (Mathematica Inference Tool) software program to explore what inference to make from tests of different sensitivity , specificty and base rates (all this will be clear!)
- view :Short video clip (made in 2004 but relevant in 2009 too) about measuring probabilities as prices ...
- Homework exercise for today. :A question at uctv on mixed strategies.
See you in 3 weeks , Monday April 23, after the 3 week midterm break
News
- midterm test week 6; in class
- final test week 12 ; in class
- want to earn $$$ participating in Experiments? click here
